Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 13.173690 15.407368 17.854258 20.726911 23.999929 27.605674 31.871185
2024-12-15 10.300825 13.354225 17.002008 21.652081 27.390220 34.204971 42.873382
2024-12-22 8.151890 11.550741 15.922692 21.892949 29.757684 39.679516 53.045000
2024-12-29 6.622021 10.150535 14.992412 22.007545 31.773821 44.729996 63.024605
2025-01-05 5.257540 8.675546 13.655808 21.272578 32.417670 47.878797 70.632581
2025-01-12 4.417069 7.788533 12.970803 21.282610 33.981551 52.286529 80.188337
2025-01-19 3.749207 7.036885 12.348883 21.250543 35.396469 56.504015 89.703254
2025-01-26 3.434170 6.804733 12.489744 22.378949 38.624291 63.574336 103.851614
2025-02-02 3.124607 6.523371 12.496368 23.260448 41.501950 70.280600 117.869347
2025-02-09 2.878162 6.312024 12.583128 24.260868 44.624850 77.549008 133.192893
2025-02-16 2.521942 5.827347 12.113211 24.225679 45.982339 82.055231 144.393857
2025-02-23 2.133927 5.208780 11.308116 23.483449 46.025634 84.369402 152.139600
2025-03-02 1.796374 4.642643 10.539996 22.745029 46.047105 86.717293 160.235059
2025-03-09 1.598778 4.349220 10.273283 22.930150 47.752551 92.055544 173.710856
2025-03-16 1.406732 4.031649 9.911068 22.879281 48.999788 96.659529 186.192854
2025-03-23 1.245144 3.755745 9.597397 22.884460 50.339279 101.495929 199.348741
2025-03-30 1.049501 3.351534 8.938530 22.082209 50.006273 103.231966 207.039551
2025-04-06 0.931953 3.130162 8.666080 22.077008 51.260382 107.979814 220.450190
2025-04-13 0.827326 2.922174 8.394380 22.038047 52.430323 112.624782 233.911112
2025-04-20 0.796321 2.923679 8.638299 23.200859 56.217075 122.541192 257.786270
2025-04-27 0.754221 2.883009 8.769278 24.109904 59.523332 131.697132 280.669361
2025-05-04 0.720154 2.860940 8.945300 25.142064 63.171063 141.729187 305.726865
2025-05-11 0.645085 2.688202 8.694941 25.105619 64.440257 147.036353 321.839843